Hamilton's Pamphlets

Predictions From the Presidential Debate

Prediction one: Republicans who thought President Bush was going to deliver the knock out punch will be down tomorrow. I think some folks got cocky and had some very unrealistic expectations.

Prediction two: The Dems will be up tomorrow. Their candidate didn't screw up in a major way, so he didn't get KO'ed. He lives to fight another day. The MSM is gushing over Kerry. The DNC's "flood the news" email was succesful. Early "Flash Polls" indicate a Kerry win.

Prediction three: When the dust settles everyone will call it no better than a draw. Kerry needed to hit a home run. He got base hits, but no home run.

Prediction four: The polls will narrow by a point or two based on MSM gushing over Kerry. Reality will settle in and the President will reopen his lead to high single digits maybe even low double digits by November.

Prediction five: Almost no one will watch the remaining debates (except us political junkies). 90 minutes was just too long (even for me). This confirmed with most folks why they don't watch these things.

Prediction six: In the long run, this debate will have almost no effect on the election.

Prediction seven: President Bush wins the election in November. He will have a high single digit to low double digit lead in the polls and will have more than 300 electoral votes and will win the popular vote.

Biggest take away is the DNC success in hammering the post debate "flash polls". The DNC grass roots whipped the GOP grassroots and the conservative bloggers. If their get out the vote and other grass roots organization operate this efficiently on election day President Bush and the GOP will struggle for the win.

The Presidential Debates

Well....
I don't think the debates moved anyone. JK appealed to his base, President Bush simply restated his positions again. Neither one hit a home run. JK needed to hit a home run to stay competitive, didn't happen. The MSM is gushing the JK won, the DNC is claiming victory. They must have been watching a different debate.

If I weren't such a political junkie I would have switched back to the Navy - Air Force game.

Kerry didn't wow, Bush held his own. Net effect zero.

President Bush wins in November. Almost no one will watch the remaining debates.

Navy is UNDEFEATED!!!

NAVY 24

AIR FORCE 21

Navy is five and oh... oh my!

Looks like the Commander-In-Chief Trophy stays in Annapolis.

GO NAVY!

Highfive for Blackfive

Thanks to Matt @ Blackfive for sending all the people! Wow! Just a neophyte to the blogoshpere and got lots of traffic all of a sudden. Thankfully, the server hasn't even broken a sweat...(yet?) I saw what happened to RatherBiased the other day and got a little nervous...

Anyway, thanks Matt! Hooah!

Go Navy - Beat Army!!!

Sorry shipmate, but I bleed Blue and Gold. Go Middies - Ground the Fly Boys tonight!!

Seeing RED in Washington??

Could pieces of the "Left Coast" be slipping from the grasp of the DNC? Presidential race a dead heat? Nethercutt only 7 points behind Murray? Rossi and Gregoire a toss up? IN WASHINGTON??!!??

Great article from Matt Rosenberg in Sound Politics (also on Rosenblog).

Another Poll Shows Tight Prez Race In WA Yesterday, I wrote about a SurveyUSA poll of likely voters refuting the dated and flawed Ipsos-Public Affairs survey of less-likely-to-turn-out registered voters in WA. Kerry's been losing ground.....and his WA lead is almost within the four-point margin of error, SurveyUSA reported.

Now, the second poll in just a few days indicating Washington remains a battleground, just about dead even, in fact. It was done, and paid for by Atlanta-based Strategic Vision, which has been doing regular surveys in swing states. The phone poll surveyed 801 likely voters, Sept. 20 to 22. MOE=3.

In WA, Kerry's margin has slipped from 9 (8/9-11) to 6 (8/21-23) to 3 (9/4-6) and now (9/20-22) to 2 points in a two-way race. In a three-way race (with Nader) his slippage over the same timeframe is 7 points, to 3, to 2, to 1.

Here's a report on the latest round of its WA polling, by Strategic Vision (a summary was to be posted later today here), but had not been yet, after 6pm PST.

The results of the poll showed that the Kerry Campaign has lost substantial ground in Washington. In the match-up between the two presidential tickets, Kerry-Edwards led Bush-Cheney 47% to 45%, with 8% undecided and a margin of error of +/- 3%. In a three-way contest with the Bush-Cheney ticket, the Kerry-Edwards ticket, and the Nader-Camejo ticket, the results were Bush-Cheney 45%, Kerry-Edwards 46%, Nader-Camejo 2%, with 7% undecided, and a margin of error of +/- 3%.
“John Kerry is losing ground in Washington as he is in all the battleground states,” said David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC, “This is not good news for Kerry. He must now defend the states that Al Gore won in 2000, before he can begin making inroads on Bush states. Just by tying Kerry down in Washington with time and resources takes away from states like Florida and Ohio that Kerry must win. It also shows that his new strategy is not working yet.

...."Kerry’s problem is that more people are exposed to him the less they like him,” said Johnson. That is why we have seen him begin appearing on shows like “The Late Show with David Letterman” and “Live with Regis and Kelly”, in an attempt to humanize him. Unfortunately for him once most people form an opinion of a candidate it is hard to change it with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton being the exceptions, and Kerry has not demonstrated their type of charm and charisma that would allow him to do so.”

Among other results in the Strategic Vision WA poll:

If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for Patty Murray (D) or George Nethercutt (R) ?
Patty Murray 48%
George Nethercutt 41%
Undecided 11%

If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Christine Gregoire (D), Dino Rossi (R), or Ruth Bennett?
Christine Gregoire 44%
Dino Rossi 42%
Ruth Bennett 1%
Undecided 13%

Reminder to self: Give more money to Nethercutt campaign. Give money to Rossi campaign.

Note to Netercutt campaign: I gave money, I volunteered, I want my yard sign and bumper sticker!!!!

Note to Washington State GOP: Why is it so FREAKIN hard to get yard signs, stickers etc. to support Rossi, Nethercutt, etc. YOU HAVE WORK TO DO and TIME IS SHORT.

Just ONE of the Many Reasons I'm Voting for President George W. Bush

From LeftNuts Via Right Wing News -

I'm copying the whole thing in because I want everyone to read the whole thing. This shows what a great HUMAN BEING our President is.

The President has a lesson for us By Paul Jetter, Columnist

Click Here to post your comments on this article

Piqua Daily Call
Piqua, Ohio, August 2004

My son worked this summer in Washington, D.C. A friend of his works for Laura Bush in the White House. She planned an event for the award winners of a program called "Preserve America." One of the award winners sent back an email about his experience during the time he was in the Oval Office to be recognized. I would like to share part of his email with you.

"On our way out of the office we were to leave by the glass doors on the west side of the office. I was the last person in the exit line.
As I shook his hand one final time ... I then did something that surprised even me. I said to him, 'Mr. President, I know you are a busy man and your time is precious. I also know you to be a man of strong faith and I have a favor to ask you.' As he shook my hand he looked me in the eye and said, 'Just name it.'

"I told him that my step-Mom was at that moment in a hospital having a tumor removed from her skull and it would mean a great deal to me if he would consider adding her to his prayers that day. He grabbed me by the arm and took me back toward his desk as he said,
'So that's it. I could tell that something is weighing heavy on your heart today. I could see it in your eyes. This explains it.'
From the top drawer of his desk he retrieved a pen and a note card with his seal on it and asked, 'How do you spell her name?'

He then jotted a note to her while discussing the importance of family and the strength of prayer. "When he handed me the card, he asked about the surgery and the prognosis. I told him we were hoping that it is not a recurrence of an earlier cancer and that if it is they can get it all with this surgery. He said, 'If it's okay with you, we'll take care of the prayer right now. Would you pray with me?'
I told him yes and he turned to the staff that remained in the office and hand motioned the folks to step back or leave.

He said, 'Bruce and I would like some private time for a prayer.'

"As they left he turned back to me and took my hands in his. I was prepared to do a traditional prayer stance standing with each other with heads bowed. Instead, he reached for my head with his right hand and pulling gently forward, he placed my head on his shoulder. With his left arm on my mid back, he pulled me to him in a prayerful embrace. He started to pray softly. I started to cry. He continued his prayer for Loretta and for God's perfect will to be done. I cried some more. My body shook a bit as I cried and he just held tighter. He closed by asking God's blessing on Loretta and the family during the coming months.

"I stepped away from our embrace, wiped my eyes, swiped at the tears I'd left on his shoulder, and looked into the eyes of our President.
I thanked him as best I could and told him that my family and I would cntinue praying for him and his family. He has a pile of incredible stuff on his plate each day and yet he is tuned in so well to the here and now that he 'sensed' something heavy on my heart. He took time out of his life to care, to share, and to seek God's blessing for my family..."

What a lesson for us all! In our busy world it is so easy to tell people we will pray for them and then forget all about it. How much better would it be if we took a moment and prayed with them right then.

The Bible says we are to "Pray continually" l Thessalonians 5:17).
I don't think that means to be always on our knees, but instead to be in tune with those around us and always ready to take their needs to our Heavenly Father.

Paul Jetter is the pastor of Upper Valley Community Church in Piqua, Ohio.

From Right Nut

Can you imagine Kerry doing something like this?

WITHOUT cameras rolling?

This story has been confirmed. The person that met the president is Bruce Vincent. See truthorfiction.com

I got choked up just reading this. How can ANYONE not vote for this guy? This is exactly the kind of guy I want in charge of the greatest country on the planet.

Election 2000 county by county vote map

Very, very cool graphic showing the county by county breakdown for the entire US for the 2000 Election. I think for 2004 it will look even more red. Pulled this from a post by Erick at Redstate.org, very cool.

Election 2000 County Map

Afghanistan Vet Gets Attacked in Massachusets

This isn't really a political statement about how they treat Vets in Massachusets, but I just love it.

Some loser shoots a former MP, who then proceeds to pound the crap out of him until the police arrive. You just can't keep those Bailey boys down!! Thanks to Radix on Freeruplic.com for posting this. Entertaining if nothing else, check it out Vet shot in Dunkin' Donuts parking lot: Weymouth man gets stitches to forehead

Hooah!

Latest Swift Boat Ad

Thanks to BLACKFIVE for the link to the latest from the Swifties.

This looks to be the most devastating one yet. In my days at the Pentagon I worked for a 3 star that was a Swiftie. He told some stories that still raise the hair on the back of my neck. Mind you he didn't tell them often and NEVER on request, but sometimes on long trips after a cocktail or two, one or two stories would slip out... Because of that I have been a little squeamish on attacking JK on his service in Viet Nam. Mind you, from the stories both from him and the Swifties he appears to have been (still is?) reckless, arrogant, self promoting and tactically clueless, but in my many years in the Navy, I have to tell you that I have run across his ilk time and time again. Don't get me wrong, the Navy is not fully of posers like JK, fortunately for all of us there are still plenty of smart hard working folks of all ranks out here in the sea service. But as far as JK goes - definitely not the kind of guy I would have had beers with or gone "steaming" on Liberty with and I certainly would not have wanted to go on ANY mission with him. HOWEVER, he did serve his country in a dangerous place at a very difficult time you cannot take that away from him (regardless of the quality of that service - sorry just won't fly with me).

What JK did AFTER his return to the US from Viet Nam has always been disgraceful in my book and that is where this ad takes aim. Needless to say it is a "Direct Hit". I have always felt that his post Viet Nam actions were his biggest liability and greatest failure (both as an American and as a Human Being). It certainly tainted his service in the Navy and in Viet Nam and clearly labeled him as an "anti-war activist". His anti-war activism and his do-nothing record in the Senate (oh, and his uber-liberal positions on everything else!) make him the worst presidential candidate since Dukakis... I think this Swift Boat Ad is going to be the most devastating one yet... Good on 'em. I think its time to give them some more $$. You can too at Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

Yet More Reports of Voter Fraud

Jim Geraghty over at NRO's "Kerry Spot" has an amazing list of potential Voter Fraud. Check it out at FORGET ALL THE POLLS - REPORTS INDICATE MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD EFFORTS

Here's a snippet from Jim, to read the whole story with all his links just follow the link above to the Kerry Spot:

Revise all your expectations. Throw all the poll results out the window. All bets should be off for this year’s election, because the huge get-out-the-vote efforts promised by various new independent groups is apparently yielding a “get-out-the-ineligible-dead-and-vote” effort.

You have to read the whole thing to get the scope of just how big this voter fraud is becoming... Using convicted felons to register new voters... Forged signatures on voter registration forms... Large numbers of people at the same address... Addresses that don't exist... Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada the list is large and getting larger

As I said yesterday, these left wing uber-liberal "Get out the vote" groups like all the various incarnations of PIRG and Project Vote are turning our Hallowed Processes into a third or fourth world joke. Where is President Carter's indignation and dire warnings about these abominations? Why is there little or no mention of it in the MSM?