Busy weekend coming so I'm giving my predictions now.
Electoral Vote: Bush 306 Kerry 232
Actual: Bush 284 Kerry 252 - I really thought Minnesota and Wisconsin were going Red...
Popular Vote: Bush 53% Kerry 45% Nader 1% Others 1%
Actual: Bush 51% Kerry 48% Nader 1% - Hey, I was pretty close. I really thought that the "I don't like any of the top three I'm voting for McCain" would rack up about 1%. Oh well. Nailed the Nader vote, yeah I know, who cares...
Senate: Republicans +4 (maybe even +5)
Actual: +4, I was really hoping Coors would win in Colorado. Despite being a political novice, I really like him. I think he would have done a great job in the Senate. He's probably done with running for office, but once bitten by the political bug you never recover. He and his family have always been politically active, look for him to play a more prominent role in that going forward.
House: Republicans pick up seats
Actual: Republicans pick up 4 and I was sufficiently vague enough that I can claim victory. Truth is I didn't evaluate enough of the races to make a more empirical prediction. 435 seats is a bunch to look at and I do have a day job. Besides so much of the House is Local Politics and really hard nail down from a distance.
Obama vs. Keyes: Obama by knock out in the first round. Can Keyes just forfeit and save the embarassment?
Actual: Obama is the only bright spot in the Democrat Debacle. Got this one, but that isn't saying much my 4 year old could have called this one (ok my 2 year old could have called it).
South Dakota: Thune 51% over Daschle 47% (then Daschle really can be a DC resident!)
Actual: Thune wins. The RSCC dumped enough money and support into this race that it had to be competitive. Add to it that John Thune is a great candidate and Daschle was completely out of touch with his constituency and it was a given. Yes I can add. I know that 51 and 47 add up to 98. I thought that because of the hard fought nature of the campaign some folks would opt out and vote neither. Got that wrong on the Presidential election too...
Alaska: Murkowski rides W's coattails and gets the win.
Actual: Murkowski clung to those coattails and squeaked out a win.
Florida: Martinez (R) over Castor (D)
Actual: Martinez wins. The polls showed a close race (the ones that are worth anything anyway) and I credit W's coattails and a strong Hispanic population with conservative leanings. Florida is trending very Republican and their biggest problems are always in South Florida/Miami. I felt that Martinez could hold his own in that area and the R after his name would carry him for the rest.
Colorado: Coors (R) over Salazar (D)
Actual: Coors can't close the deal. Coors was a political rookie running for office. He and his family are legendary in conservative political support, but strong conservative credentials and deep pockets weren't enough, hey this ain't Jersey. Look for Coors to remain politically active in a public way, but I doubt that he runs for office again.
Oklahoma: Coburn (R) over Carson (D)
Actual: Coburn wins. Oklahoma still has a guilty conscience over Steve Largent. This is a very conservative state and solidly Republican. Carson only got traction because he is a very conservative Democrat and is NOT in line with his national party (a la Warner in Virginia).
North Carolina: Burr (R) over Bowles (D) - Fortunately Richard Burr is a much better man than his distant relative Aaron Burr, who for obvious reasons is not highly thought of by Hamilton's Pamphlets.
Actual: Burr wins. Erskine Bowles ain't Bill Clinton. Only Bill Clinton can do what he does. Clinton has never had coattails, being a Clinton Staffer is only good if you want to write a tell all book or get a gig on TV. The South is Dark Red Republican Country now, when the old guard Democrat Senators retire they too will most likely be replaced by Republicans. House seats will remain a reflection of their districts, but trend more Republican than Democrat, especially outside the urban centers.
Louisiana: Vitter wins with more than 50%, no runoff.
Actual: Vitter wins, no runoff. Vitter has been running in the high to mid 40's for months. Given the Republican take over of the South and W's coattails, it looked like a slam dunk that he would get the remaining few percent.
South Carolina: DeMint (R) over Taxenbaum (D).
Actual: DeMint wins. The media and a couple of mis-steps and mis-statements by DeMint kept Tanenbaum in this one. The South is becoming more and more solid Republican and conservative. This was DeMint's race to lose and he toughed it out for the win. Again, W's coattails helped, but I think DeMint won this one on his own merits.
Kentucky: Bunning (R) keeps his senate seat despite some strange goings on...
Actual: Bunning wins. Despite some really odd behavior by Bunning in the closing days of the election cycle he kept his seat. He had a quality opponent and did himself no favors. Kentucky is solid conservative/Republican (they still have dry counties for crying out loud!). The liberals in Louisville will not be able to overcome the rest of the state anytime soon. Bunning however is damaged goods, if the Republicans aren't looking for a replacement they'll be in trouble six years from now - my recommendation is Anne Northup. The downside to that is that the dems will finally get Anne's district back if she moves up to the Senate.
Washington State:
1. Murray (D) 49% over Nethercutt(R)47%, but if George sticks around he'll beat Cantwell in 2006.
Actual: Murray got a margin of 12%, very disappointing. Washington is sooo out of step with the rest of the country. I blame the looney's in Seattle (who over whelmingly sent Jim McDermott back to DC). I still think he can beat Cantwell in 2006, her dotcom millions are gone and she hasn't done much, if anything, for the state.
2. Dino Rossi (R) over Christine "call me Chris" Gregoire (D) in a tight race ~50 to 49%.
Actual: Still too close to call. If the WA State GOP can't get Dino Rossi elected we are doomed to left of center leadership for the foreseeable future...
3. Rob Mckenna (R) over Debra Senn for AG. Rob wins in a walk, Senn isn't well liked by most...
Actual: Rob wins in walk. If Dino doesn't pull it out, maybe Rob will take on "Chris" after four years of more of the same...
4. Dave Reichert (R) over Dave Ross (D) for retiring Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn's seat. Sheriff Dave Reichert is a class act. Polished, well spoken. Looks the part. Wins by at least 4%.
Actual: Dave Reichert wins by 4%. Sometimes I scare myself...
Overall, Bush DOUBLES his Popular Vote support in the BLUE STATES from 2000. Comes within 5% in California, 2% in Oregon and 4% in Washington. Bush wins Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and maybe Minnesota. It was never close in Colorado or Nevada (easy Bush wins). Bush wins New Mexico.
Actual: Not so good on the percentages, but he did narrow the gap from 2000. Missed Wisconsin and Minnesota, I really thought the President and the GOP had made significant in-roads there. Wisconsin was really close and I think their same day vote/registration is at fault. 11,000 votes could have come in from any where. They really need to tighten that up. Minnesota is the biggest disappointment, they really didn't change significantly from 2000, that's a shame. Got all the rest right.
The Dems are indeed "A National Party No More" as Senator Zell Miller(D-->R) has pointed out.
Actual: They have cancer. They have been diagnosed. Will they treat the disease or pretend everything is ok? Looks like they remain in denial. Look for more losses in State Houses and Governorships.
Dark Horses:
Bush picks up (in order of likelyhood): Hawaii, New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
Actual: Well, I said they were darkhorses didn't I? Narrowed the gap, but didn't close the deal. 2008 will be very interesting in these states.
Update: I see that the Weekly Standard has posted their staff's predictions. What are some of those people smoking? William Kristol reflects my "best case" scenario. Fred Barnes, Jonathan Last, Rachel DiCarlo and Michael Goldfarb post some very realistic looking numbers. I like David Skinners prediction and I hope his "Dark Horse" scenario works out, I used to live in his district too and Jim Moran is a deplorable human being (very Jim McDermott-like, but less of a commie), so I hope Moran takes it up the ....uh, on the chin.
Anyone care to second guess? The comments are open. We'll see on Tuesday who read the tea leaves best.